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ADB Report Warns 1.48 Million Pakistanis Could Face Annual Coastal Flooding by 2100, With Karachi Among High-Risk Areas
By Mariam Khan
Real Estate Analyst
3 min read
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By Mariam Khan
Real Estate Analyst
3 min read
A report citing the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) Asia-Pacific Climate Report 2026 warns that approximately 1.48 million people in Pakistan could be exposed to annual coastal flooding by 2100. Under the report's high-emissions scenario, approximately 566,000 people in Karachi could be affected each year. The assessment was reported on October 25, 2026. These are long-term projections. They are not current flood casualties or confirmed property damage. We have not established the original release date of the ADB report.
About 1.48 million people in Pakistan could be exposed to annual coastal flooding by 2100. About 566,000 of them are in Karachi, which is about 38 percent of the national figure (our own calculation). The 566,000 is stated under a high-emissions scenario. The reports we have seen do not say which scenario the 1.48 million figure uses, so the two numbers may not be directly comparable and we do not treat the 38 percent as exact.
The assessment highlights risks from rising sea levels, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion. The reports do not give the expected rise in sea level, the areas most at risk beyond Karachi or the assumptions about population growth. We do not add detail that the reports do not give.
A projection to the year 2100 depends on emissions, sea-level change and settlement patterns over about 75 years. It describes a possible exposure, not a forecast of what will happen to any property. Climate policy for Pakistan is coordinated by the Ministry of Climate Change.
Coastal flooding risks could influence future land-use planning, infrastructure resilience, development approvals and long-term property investment decisions in Karachi and other coastal areas. The reports do not say that any current property is at risk or that values will change, and we do not claim any effect.
Buyers of coastal property may wish to ask about drainage, elevation and the planning rules of the area, as part of ordinary checks. Developers and planners can read the findings as an input to long-term resilience planning. The signals to watch are the full ADB report for its scenarios and data, any national or provincial coastal-planning measures and approvals for new coastal developments.
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