News
World Bank Forecasts 23% Rise in Global Commodity Prices in 2026, Raising Construction Cost Concerns for Pakistan
By Mariam Khan
Real Estate Analyst
3 min read
The World Bank released its latest Commodity Markets Outlook on October 28, 2026, forecasting a 23 percent increase in global commodity prices during 2026. The forecast is for the world market. It is not a forecast of Pakistan's domestic cement, steel or property prices, and the reports we have seen do not give Pakistan figures. The outlook is published on the World Bank's commodity markets pages.
The Main Projections
Energy prices are expected to rise 32 percent in 2026. Metals prices are forecast to rise 25 percent, with aluminium, copper and tin reaching record highs. Brent crude is expected to average about $92 per barrel in 2026, and global oil supply is projected to fall 5.2 percent during the year. For 2027, overall commodity prices are expected to fall about 7 percent. The oil figure is an average for the whole year, so it differs from the day-to-day prices seen in October.
What the World Bank Points To
The World Bank attributes the increases to disruption linked to the Middle East conflict, higher energy costs, shipping difficulties and strong demand for industrial metals. We give these as the bank's stated reasons.
What It Could Mean for Construction in Pakistan
Higher international energy and metals prices could raise the cost of construction materials, electrical installations, transport and imported equipment. Developers facing higher input costs may come under pressure on project budgets, which could affect future housing prices. Increased fuel and material costs could also strain road and public infrastructure budgets. These are possible effects. They are not confirmed increases in Pakistani prices.
Interest Rates
Persistent global inflation could complicate efforts to lower borrowing costs. The report does not announce any change to Pakistan's policy rate, and we do not predict one. Pakistan's budget and debt policy is published by the Ministry of Finance.
What Is Not Known
The reports do not say how much of the global rise will reach Pakistan, or how it will interact with the rupee. We do not estimate a figure for cement, steel or housing.
What This Means for Builders, Buyers and Investors
Builders may want to review price-adjustment clauses and the timing of material purchases. Buyers should not assume that global forecasts will translate directly into local prices. The signals to watch are domestic cement and steel prices, fuel price notifications, the exchange rate and the State Bank's next policy decision.